The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has cautioned that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could rise to as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria fails to fully embrace local fuel production and continues to rely heavily on imports.

The warning came on Monday as officials of the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery dismissed reports suggesting that the facility was shutting down for maintenance, describing such claims as false, misleading and aimed at justifying fresh increases in petrol prices.

According to the refinery, the absence of large-scale domestic refining would leave fuel importers unchecked in a post-subsidy environment, exposing consumers to severe price shocks.

“Recent price movements underscore a disturbing reality. Without the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in operation, fuel importers would continue to dominate the market without restraint, with petrol prices potentially rising to N1,400 per litre,” the company said in a statement.

It added that the refinery has become a critical stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, helping to moderate prices and ensure supply security.

Reacting to allegations of a shutdown, the company stressed that its operations remain continuous and uninterrupted, noting that production levels are adjusted only in response to market demand.

The refinery disclosed that it currently produces between 40 million and 50 million litres of PMS daily. It revealed that on January 4 alone, it produced 50 million litres of petrol and evacuated 48 million litres through its gantry.

It further stated that existing stock levels are sufficient to meet over 20 days of national consumption, effectively dispelling concerns about any imminent supply disruption.

“From December 16, 2025, to date, the refinery has loaded between 31 million and 48 million litres of PMS daily, in line with prevailing market demand,” the statement said.

The company emphasised that all loading figures are verifiable through depot records maintained by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) as part of its statutory oversight functions.

Nigeria’s fuel market has remained volatile since May 2023, when the Federal Government removed petrol subsidies, allowing prices to reflect market forces driven largely by global oil prices and import costs.

Since commencing operations, the Dangote Refinery—Africa’s largest—has helped to ease pressure on the market by locking in large volumes of locally refined petrol and reducing dependence on imports.

As a result, fuel prices, which once climbed as high as N1,200 per litre after subsidy removal, have at different times dropped to as low as N699, a development widely attributed to the refinery’s intervention.

However, the company noted that challenges such as crude oil supply constraints and continued fuel imports still limit the full benefits of domestic refining, even as debates persist over regulation, competition and pricing in the downstream sector.