Nigeria’s electricity shortage may worsen in the coming weeks as gas suppliers cut back deliveries to thermal power plants, raising concerns about further strain on the already fragile national grid.

Data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator indicates that thermal plants require about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to operate at optimal capacity. However, as of February 23, 2026, only about 692 million standard cubic feet per day was supplied—less than 43 per cent of the required volume.

The development comes as blackouts intensify across many states, disrupting economic activities and forcing businesses and households to rely more heavily on costly alternative power sources.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr. Joy Ogaji, warned that mounting debts across the electricity value chain are pushing the sector toward a major crisis.

Speaking during an interview on Fresh FM in Ibadan, Ogaji said the problem stems largely from the inability of the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc to fully pay power generation companies for electricity supplied since the sector was privatised in 2013.

According to her, the Federal Government currently owes generation companies about N6.8 trillion, with roughly 70 per cent of the debt linked to gas-fired thermal plants that dominate electricity production on the national grid.

She explained that a substantial portion of the debt is owed to gas suppliers because thermal power plants depend on natural gas to operate.

Industry estimates suggest that about N3.3 trillion of the total outstanding amount is owed directly to gas producers, whose fuel powers the majority of Nigeria’s electricity generation.

Ogaji said many gas suppliers have already informed generation companies that they will no longer continue supplying gas unless outstanding payments are settled.

“NBET was established to buy power from GenCos and sell to DisCos, with the expectation that it would pay fully for the electricity generated,” she said. “But since 2013, payments have never been complete, and the debt has now ballooned to about N6.8 trillion.”

She explained that the debt profile has grown steadily over the years, rising to about N4 trillion between 2015 and December 2024.

In 2025 alone, monthly payment shortfalls of about N200 billion added roughly N2.4 trillion to the liabilities, pushing the total to over N6.4 trillion by the end of the year.

The debt has continued to climb in 2026, reaching about N6.6 trillion in January and N6.8 trillion in February, with projections that it could exceed N7 trillion by the end of March if the current trend persists.

Ogaji said the worsening financial strain has left generation companies unable to pay gas suppliers or service bank loans obtained during the 2013 power sector privatisation.

She noted that many of the loans were denominated in dollars when the exchange rate stood at about N155 to the dollar, a situation that has worsened repayment obligations following the sharp depreciation of the naira.

According to her, the financial crisis in the sector is directly linked to the ongoing electricity shortages across the country.

“Yes, it is absolutely correct to say that the debt is the reason why we are in darkness,” she said.

Meanwhile, electricity consumers in several parts of the country have continued to complain about persistent blackouts and load shedding by distribution companies.

Data from the national grid shows that power allocation to distribution companies remains limited. For instance, the Abuja Electricity Distribution Company is receiving about 539 megawatts, while Ikeja Electric is receiving 533MW and Eko Electricity Distribution Company about 455MW.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission also confirmed in its February 2026 operational performance report that only about 32 per cent of the country’s installed generation capacity of 13,625MW was dispatched during the month.

The regulator said an average of 4,384MW was available for dispatch, with about 4,102MW actually utilised across the grid.

Despite the constraints, hydropower stations such as Kainji Dam and Jebba Hydroelectric Power Station remained among the strongest contributors to the grid during the period.

Across the country, residents and businesses say the persistent outages are crippling livelihoods.

In Lagos, residents in areas such as Fadeyi staged protests over prolonged blackouts, complaining about estimated billing and the lack of prepaid meters despite the unreliable power supply.

Small business owners across several states, including Kano, Kaduna and Yenagoa, say they are increasingly relying on petrol generators, significantly raising their operating costs and cutting into profits.

Electricity distribution companies have apologised to customers, blaming the situation largely on gas supply shortages affecting thermal power plants.

In a notice to customers, Ikeja Electric said the reduced gas supply had created a significant energy shortfall on the national grid, forcing distribution companies to increase load shedding across their networks while efforts continue to restore normal generation levels.